By Roshan Aslam
The global economy is driven by various factors that occur worldwide. If we take a closer look, we soon come to understand that everything that drives the economy boils down to one single factor — everything is interconnected. A regional conflict, or government policy change somewhere in the world, and even inflation — these aspects come under the jurisdiction of macroeconomic factors that go on to have an influence on how the global economy performs.
For instance, the Red Sea crisis in 2024 had a significant adverse impact on global trade, which led to a faltering worldwide economy. However, when Bitcoin was introduced as an asset to the world, its decentralization aspect made many hopeful to finally have a way to avoid the macroeconomic factors. But it was not to be. While Bitcoin at the most foundational level remains decentralized, meaning it is not regulated by any entity, government or otherwise, it is prone to be impacted by global developments.
From an unforeseen weakening dollar, or inflation to government policy changes and geopolitical factors, every macroeconomic factor plays a significant role in shaping investor sentiment. This goes on to impact the overall price action of Bitcoin, directly translating into bullish or bearish momentums.
Inflation as a trigger Globally, Bitcoin is considered as one of the most credible assets to hedge against inflation. However, the relationship between Bitcoin and inflation goes both ways. For instance, whenever inflation is on the rise, it impacts the purchasing power of currencies, essentially leading investors towards alternative financial assets such as Bitcoin. On the other hand, as inflation rises, central banks also
move towards cutting interest rates.
For example, the Federal Reserve has cut its interest rates recently to enable banks and individuals to spend more. In this case, as interest rates enhance the purchasing power, people become more interested in investing in alternative financial assets like Bitcoin, which helps them to hedge against inflation.
The resulting demand is far from restricted to tens or hundreds of investors, but to millions. As a huge demand is created, Bitcoin price action witnesses a sharp bullish momentum, essentially where the price goes upwards. Vice versa, when inflation remains low, investors tend to opt for more conventional ways of investment, turning a blind eye towards risk assets like Bitcoin, where the volatility is significantly high. During this period, Bitcoin prices drop as the asset adopts a bearish movement with investors selling.
Role of government policies and taxation
Despite Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, assets like Bitcoin can be indirectly impacted by government policies. For instance, India has one of the highest Bitcoin adoption rates in the world. However, considering the country’s population and investor base, the investor community that has adopted Bitcoin remains minuscule at best. One of the primary reasons for this is government policy towards Bitcoin and the high taxation associated with it.
In India, the government has imposed significant taxation related to capital gains from Bitcoin and similar assets. Coupled with brokerage charges, other costs, and volatility, Indian investors tend to see Bitcoin not as lucrative as it is deemed in the western world. Similarly, in the US, push from the Federal government has made Bitcoin one of the most important assets for retail investors. Under the Donald Trump administration, the country has also established its first ever Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, an aspect that has received widespread applause from the
investor community. Furthermore, the taxation related to Bitcoin remains significantly low compared to elsewhere in the world, and these aspects have played a critical role in shaping investor sentiment, and by way of that, Bitcoin’s price action.
When the creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was announced by President Trump in which was the first of its kind in the world, Bitcoin rallied from $85,000 to $94,834 within a couple of hours, approximately a 12% gain.
Impact of Geopolitics
One of the major drivers of Bitcoin price action is geopolitical events. Bitcoin is extensively popular as a risk asset, and when uncertainty looms over the world, investors tend to flock towards it. For instance, when the Red Sea Crisis emerged in 2024, global shipping almost came to a standstill. This led to considerable disruptions in trade, and most importantly, the operational agility of companies, and finally, the economy. At this time, Bitcoin witnessed a significant inflow of capital through ETFs, institutional, and retail investments. This directly translated into a bullish momentum for Bitcoin.
A similar example can also be found in tariff wars in 2025, the earlier Russia-Ukraine conflict, or even the US Presidential Election win by Donald Trump. All these events were considered of significance to geopolitics, and were followed by bullish momentums.
(Roshan Aslam is CEO, GoSats and an expert on Crypto currencies)