Rama Krishna Sangem
An opinion poll commissioned by leading English news channel, CNN-News18, projected 411 out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats to ruling BJP led NDA The channel with links to Mukhesh Ambani owned companies, has estimated Congress included INDIA would get just 105 seats and others 27. This means, PM Modi’s wish to get 400 plus LS seats to NDA looks possible.
At the same time, the poll predicted just 352 MPs to BJP on its won, while just 49 to Congress. That means, BJP on its won will not get 370 seats as is Modi wish, while Congress is to suffer a setback from its present tally of 53 MPs in Lok Sabha. So, Congress once again may not get the status of recognized opposition party, that needs at least 10 per cent of the total strength of the House – 55 MPs.
But, does the opinion poll reflect the situation on the ground? As the anchors of the two day live programme on the survey aired on March 13 and 14 said, this poll is conducted between February 12 to March 1. However the sample size is large – 518 LS seats with around 1.20 lakh participants. Three assembly segments were taken from each of LS seats. This looks like a large base, but still there are doubts over the projections.
Telangana, AP projections
CNN-News18 opinion poll projected good show for BJP in both Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Of the total 17 LS seats in Telangana, the poll gave 8 to BJP, 6 to Congress, 2 BRS and 1 to AIMIM. In Andhra, where assembly elections too will be held along with those of LS, the poll estimated 17 seats to NDA – that comprises TDP, Jana Sena and BJP, while ruling YSR Congress got just 8. Here the total LS seats are 25.
A panelist on the show on March 14 said YS Sharmila’s presence as AP Congress Committee president will play a big role in cutting Jagan’s votes, among SC/STs and minorities. Because of her, the vote share of Congress went up from just 1 per cent in 2019, to 6 per cent now, though the party may not get LS seats. The opinion poll hasn’t talked about the assembly polls anywhere.
Now the question is how far this opinion poll holds mirror to the actual polls that will be held in April and May this year. As the anchors themselves admitted some changes are expected on the ground, as there is a gap of 2-3 months between the opinion poll and the actual polls. CNN-News18 opinion poll mostly credited BJP’s surge to the January 22 Ram Mandir opening. The poll hasn’t taken into account any other issues.
But, as the opposition INDIA leaders say, burning public issues dominate the elections, not just coalitions and sentiments alone.
