Rama Krishna Sangem
February 29 comes next again only in 2028. This day marks the Leap year, that visits us every four years. But what’s special about this Feb 29 is that this year we are almost entering a new phase of politics in our country’s journey. As we face general elections for 18th Lok Sabha in April, most of us are not certain about the changes that may come along with them.
From now and the next four years, India will definitely be seeing a lot many changes, on all fronts. What I mean to say new politics, is we will be going through multiple developments in politics. First major change will earmarking of 33 per cent seats to women in the parliament and assemblies by 2029. By this time in ’28, we will know what MP and MLA seats will be allotted to women.
What I guess another major change is reservations to OBCs in parliament and assemblies like SC/STs and women. This OBC quota push will come during the debate on allotting quota for women after Lok Sabha elections. When some OBC will demand quota within the quota for OBC women too, the BJP leadership, mainly PM Modi will readily agree to that. Then, it will lead to quota for OBC men too in parliament and assemblies.
That will be a game-changer in Indian politics. As BJP is trying to remove regional parties from the face of Indian politics, and most of the regional parties are led by feudal upper castes or intermediary castes, the quota for OBCs will be a big weapon to achieve that goal. Of course, still there will be some regional outfits led by OBC families like RJD etc, but they will not challenge the supremacy of BJP.
BJP is only challenged by strong regional parties led by upper caste families. Congress will not be a big problem to BJP in the coming 5-10 years as the party is struggling to get its act together. Of course, Congress will cobble together an alliance of some smaller parties, but the country’s polity will largely be dominate by the saffron camp’s nationalist agenda. At least till 2029.
War on family politics
BJP will wage a war on dynastic politics in the opposition camp. BJP for its part will not encourage established political families. This is evident from changes in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. In these states, the party has eased out established CM candidates and installed novices or dark horses in their place. The same pattern we will see in the BJP’s lists of MP candidates for the coming LS electins.
BJP will focus on two things – One, Hindutwa driven nationalism. Two, high growth focused capital expenditure. These two will hand in hand. Of course, some welfare measures will be there. But, BJP will not encourage Congress type massive welfare schemes like MNREGA. As the country’s 60 per cent of people prefer high growth coupled with nationalism, BJP will bring in its own brand of new politics in next 4-5 years.
