Rama Krishna Sangem
Donald J Trump, as the next President of the US will definitely pose major challenges to the world, through his protectionist policies, but his presidency offers some big opportunities to India, said Sudhakar Gande, It is up to India to make use of those opportunities and emerge as a major global economy.
In an interview to Excel India, Gande felt that India should gear up to the evolving changes that will happen once Trump takes over the presidency on January 20..Now the fifth largest world economy, India is set to emerge as the third largest. For that every available opportunity should be tapped.
“Trunp’s victory is unprecedented and historic too. He not only won as the president by a huge margin in the electoral votes, but secured a comfortable majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives,” said Gande. So,Trump will not have any obstacles in the congress to his policies.
“This is good for the US, good for the US and good for India too. If we compare his first term as the president with the current situation, there were no wars or big conflicts – like what we have now in Ukraine-Russia and Israel and Hamas or Iran. Then he had Afghanistan, but that was a smaller issue”.
So, Trump will be more mature now and his understanding will be broader and comprehensive. ”He will undoubtedly be more assertive and transactional in his second term. His US first policy or Make America Great Again will boost the US economy,” said Gande.
What will change?
Trump’s second term administration team is more cohesive and ideologically strong. If we see the young faces appointed to his team, it appears he is preparing to continue and leave a lasting legacy in the US. For example, Kash Patel as the FBI director, Trump seems to be preferring loyalty more than anything else.
But this team of mostly new faces will be experienced by 2029, when Trump completes his second term. In the immediate terms, Trump will have to contend with some burning problems like two ongoing wars and the sluggish global economy and inflation and interest rates.
Outgoing president Biden was more reconciliatory in his approach to global issues, but not Trump. He will change some of the current policies like on climate change and ordering more production of oil and gas. We need to keep in mind the consequences of these policies, said Gande.
Tech, AI & China
India must be ready to take advantage of Trump’s policies that might disrupt transfer of technologies, AI (Artificial Intelligence) and higher tariffs particularly against China. These policies will definitely impact the global economies. We must be ready to deal with them in our favour.
Trump’s hawkish advisors may complicate things in negotiations on these issues between the US and China. If unresolved, they might result in new forms of cold wars and even lead to military conflicts. Ukraine-Russia war might end, but the Israel war with Iran might escalate, unless resolved sooner.
Trump may strengthen Europe. He may take steps to consolidate the European Union or even NATO so that it will be strong enough to take on Russia. Trump’s no-nonsense approach towards any or every issue, of course, makes all others to either fall in line or face consequences.
Good time for India
As far as India is concerned, Trump’s second term presidency offers clear opportunities. Compared to the Democrats led administration currently, India will have a better deal at the negotiating tables. “We must remember India and the US have a shared democratic vision and both are big democracies,” said Gande.
“India –US relations in different sectors will deepen and there will be more cooperation in the defence sector. We can expect more cooperation in areas like energy, high technologies of semiconductors and AI. China Plus One policy of the US will help India gain more investments,” said Gande.
Of course, higher US tariffs are a challenge to India like for others. Here, India must act carefully. Both the countries must sit together and find solutions at various levels. If necessary, India must lower tariff on certain US goods like bikes etc;
Trump’s discouragement of illegal immigration is another global challenge, but India may not be affected in a big way, as most of our immigrants are highly educated and talented and went there legally. We must not forget that Trump’s America needs India and an Indian talent pool.
Elon Musk will play a role in shaping Trump’s foreign policy. Musk will come to India for his Tesla plants. We must sort out the impediments in wooing Tesla into our country.
(Sudhakar Gande is an Investment Banker, Tech-entrepreneur and BJP leader)
