Rama Krishna Sangem
Three main factors influenced US President Donald Trump change his mind and cut tariffs and clear a trade deal with India. His post on his own Truth Social on February 2 (night time in India) came as a game-changer relief to India and its economy. Overnight, the glum mood has changed into burst of energy, celebration and optimism. We saw how the next day the BJP and NDA MPs greeted each other and PM Modi in the parliament which is in budget session.
Trump’s single post has much bigger impact on Indians than a 90 minute budget speech of FM Nirmala Sitharaman.
All this is believed to be have been caused by three major factors to change Trump mind in our favour. First, the persistent efforts made by newly appointed US ambassador Sergio Gor. Second, the just minted EU-India FTA and third and last one is America’s geopolitical-economical reason in Venezuela and Iran. Of course, there are other allied concerns in the Trump administration over not improving US-India relations for about a year.
Whatever the decision Trump takes, it will have a logic and rhythm. As of 2024, India has a trade surplus of around 45 billion US dollars. That means, if India’s exports are of around 88 billion dollars, imports stood around 43 billion dollars. This saw some ups and downs in the last one year, due to Trump tariffs up to 50 per cent since September 2025. Yes, now he cut that tariff to just 18 per cent, down by 32 per cent. Besides signing a trade deal with India. Details of this deal are yet to be announced officially.
The White House officials who are in the know of the things told our Indian journalists on Feb 2 and 3 that there will be a logic and rhythm to this deal. Whatever maybe the US tariffs on India, that will be equalize the trade balance between the two countries. That means, Trump will not permit the earlier trade balance in favour of India. If India has been collecting an average 13 per cent tariffs on the US goods, that will be brought down to achieve Trump’s purpose – of seeing America in the plus side. Clear thinking on the part of Trump.
Now the three factors
Sergio Gor: Let’s take these factors one by one. Sergio Gor, 39, (born November 30, 1986) is and insider of not only Trump camp but also close confidant of his family members. Since Gor was sent as US envoy to New Delhi, there is talk that Trump gives importance to India relations. Gor is part of Trump team since 2020 and became close a close associate of Trump Junior since then. Gor acts also as US envoy to the south and central Asian countries, but his base is New Delhi.
He explained to Trump that India is vital to any American initiative in this region. And a trade deal is essential to win the support of India in any or all of Trump’s initiatives. Gor got assurances from the Indian leadership that they will back the US on global affairs if only enters into an early trade deal (though sufficient delay has been done to that). Indian public opinion too is fast turning against Trump as he sits on a draft deal for the last few months.
EU-India FTA: Second major factor is India’s latest trade trade with the EU. The presence of EU leaders Ursula van der Leyen and Antonio Costa at the Indian Republic Day parade on Jan 26 and signing of a deal the day next has come a wake up call to Trump. India won a huge market of 27 countries with around 50 crore rich population. He wanted to waste no time. A trade deal with India may have come after a few more months, but it came now, thanks to the EU.
Venezuela & Iran: The third and last major factor is the fast changing geopolitical scenario. Trump almost occupied Venezuela and its oil fields and now he wants market to sell the crude. As all know, Venezuela crude oil is of low grade and needs refining support from Indian oil firms, which can export it back to the US. Similarly, Trump wants to neutralize India on Iran, if he wanted to attack that Islamic country. India sees a big victory in the US trade deal and for us, everything else is secondary at this moment. We are right too!