Rama Krishna Sangem
Karnataka assembly goes to polling today – May 10, Wednesday. By evening, we will know the exit polls, held by many leading media channels. Those who get favorable figures will welcome them, while others reject them saying that they believe only the actual results on May 13, Saturday. This has been the usual spectacle for the last several decades since exit polls have become a phenomenon.
Three scenarios are expected in these elections: 1. Outright majority, over 113 MLAs to Congress. 2. Outright majority to BJP. 3. Hung assembly with none of them gets simple majority, but had to depend on JD(S) which is expected to get around 30 seats, in a House of 224 MLAs. As of now, JD(S), if it gets into kingmaker position, will support only Congress on two conditions – To claim CM post for Kumaraswamy or back Congress with a Dy CM post.
Sources say, Kumaraswamy this time may relent and allow Congress to form a government if it falls short of numbers. But, still he may insist on PCC President DK Shivakumar becoming the CM. There are unconfirmed reports that they both are going to be relatives in a marriage soon. Besides the marriage, as both belong to dominant Vokkaliga community, JD(S), with the strong base of that caste, will find it easy to bat for DKS.
What’s for Telangana?
If Congress comes to power on its own, it would be a big boost to the party in Telangana. PCC president and MP Revanth Reddy has pinned hopes on this outcome. A badly divided Congress in Telangana is searching for a winning path. It’s leaders and cadre are highly demoralized after a series of by-elections defeats, in some of them lose of deposits. Out of power for 10 years, Congress is also is starved of funds.
If Congress wins Karnataka, the party in Telangana can breathe easy – for both a moral booster and a source of funds from a rich state and rich leadership in DK Shivakumar. It will also bring some sort of unity – among state leaders. Even those who want to quit the party may change their mind and stay put. Telangana Congress leaders can bank on Priyanka Gandhi as a start campaigner here too.
If BJP comes to power – it has to come on its own – it would be a big boost to the party in Telangana. BJP central leaders this time followed a Gujarat model in Karnataka – in which local leaders are not that important, but the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will work wonders. That’s why, BJP has set aside strong leaders like Jagadish Shettar and Lakshman Savadi etc, who subsequently defected to Congress.
In case, JD(S) emerges as kingmaker and there is a hung assembly, it will cheer BRS supremo and Telangana CM KCR. Though KCR hasn’t gone Karnataka for campaigning, he would like to see a hung assembly, where JD(S) wolud play a major in government formation. As anyway BRS hasn’t contested the elections, this is what KCR relishes most. .JD(S) will be an ally of BRS in Lok Sabha elections.
KCR’ s main enemy is BJP, and Congress comes next. So, whatever may be the composition of the new assembly in Karnataka, KCR will have to tighten the belts and gear up BRS for assembly polls here which may take place by the year end. Because, now on, attention of both Congress and BJP will be on Telangana, along with five other states which go to polls in 2023. AP and Odisha will have elections next summer along with Lok Sabha.
