Rama Krishna Sangem
April 2023 is historic month for India. Our population is estimated at 142.86 crore by the end of this month. All these years, since 1950, we know India is world’s second largest populous nation, after China. Now, China is behind us – though with a small difference – around 29 lakh people – at 142.57 crore. And what? this trend will continue for another 40-50 years or more. We will be a country of 166 crore people by 2050!
These figures are calculated by the United Nation’s Population Fund, which monitors reproductive trends of various countries and the growth in population. Though India hasn’t held its decennial census, to be done in 2021, due to Covid pandemic, the UN’s statistics can be taken as authentic and official. So, now on, we can proudly call ourselves as world’s largest populated nation.
Boon or Bane?
This is definitely a cause of celebration for us all. Till now we are claiming to be world’s largest democracy and now this can be added world’s most populous nation too. Of course, some experts are questioning whether this is a boon or bane for us. This is like asking – whether a child birth is a boon or bane to a family, if that family happens to be poor or lower middle class one. It all depends on how the family handles its future.
Certainly, India is a lower middle income country, though our economy in GDP terms is world’s 5th largest after the US ($ 22 trillion), China ($ 17 trillion), Japan ($ 4.91 trillion) and Germany ($ 4.31 trillion). We are just $ 3.21 trillion economy. We hope to become $ 5 trillion economy by 2025. That may be possible, if we grow by 7 per cent per year, which is likely.
However, the size of GDP (Gross Domestic Produce) may not tell us the actual story. Our per capita income is way behind that of the other major nations. India’s per capita income now is at $ 2,700 per year, whereas, that of China is $ 13,000 and that of the US is at $ 68,000. So, if we want to run a race with China in terms of population, see the big difference in per capita incomes too.
Even if we become a 5 trillion US dollar economy in another two years, our per capita income will be still around 5,000 US dollars. Anything below 7,000 US dollars of per capita income is considered lower middle income group. Now China is still called middle income country. So imagine how many more years it will take for us to become middle or upper income nation?
Urgent steps needed to enjoy demographic dividend
To enjoy the birth of a latest child in our country this month, we must pull our socks and get into action at once. Usually to enjoy demographic dividend – that to benefit from more people – we need to improve their quality. Luckily, India has a relatively younger population – around 80 per cent of them are in the working age groups of below 60 years. Around 50 per cent of our people are below 40 years. That’s fabulous.
But, are our youth well educated? Are they qualified enough to take up global opportunities? Can they compete with the best in the world in coming years? Answers are No. Only 15- 20 per cent of our graduates, post-grads are well equipped to join the work force at the global level. The rest are of below the average or average quality. Fault is not theirs. Our education system is such that.
Unless we compete at the global level, we cannot survive, leave alone becoming a world leader in the present day conditions. India is signing FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) with many countries, one by one. So, international trade and competition are necessary hurdles our youth most pass. Otherwise, we will become a low skilled or semi skilled country like Bangladesh or Vietnam.
After education, healthcare, agriculture, services sector and manufacturing are other areas that follow the order of priority. We must improve in all these sectors. Introduction and adoption of latest trends in our agriculture and industry are essential. Our agriculture sector is now far better. In fact, our farmers saved us during the Covid pandemic and now saving too.
Still the present productivity is not enough. We need to wean away a majority of excessive labour from this primary sector and redeploy them in services and manufacturing. Now our manufacturing sector, or to be frank, our exports are mainly dependent on products, from MNCs like Apple, which are coming to India due to our PLI (Productivity Linked Incentives) scheme.
This may last forever. Once PLI expires or MNCs find a better place, they may shift, though in the long term. Meanwhile, we must enhance our internal capacity and get realistic. Still India is home for thousands of villages without proper drinking water, reliable electricity, pucca roads and basic facilities like schools and health clinics. While India races into skies,Bharat lags behind badly.
We can be proud of wealth in South Mumbai or Greater Kailash in Delhi or Jubilee Hills in Hyderabad or Electronic City in Bangalore. But, we also must not forget a remote village in Bastar region of Chhattisgarh or Koraput in Orissa or Adilabad in Telangana or Srikakulam of Andhra Pradesh. Vast contrast in lives of people is not good for democracy.
Bridging these gaps is an urgent step to enjoy our huge population.Elegance follows equity!
