Rama Krishna Sangem
Delayed break in monsoon rains in most parts of the country is threatening to hit the yield of kharif crops. It could even delay the upcoming rabi sowing. Major agricultural states, such as Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat, have witnessed a deficit of 30-80 per cent in southwest monsoon rainfall in August compared to the long-period average for the month.
Meteorologists see no big revival in monsoon rains from hereon, though they forecast “some activity” over the Bay of Bengal on September 5-6. “Remember that in 70 per cent of the El Nino years, the deficit in monsoon rainfall in September is at least 10 per cent,” Madhavan Rajeevan, former secretary at the ministry of earth sciences and a well-known monsoon expert, told Business Standard.
The monsoon this year might end with a deficit of almost 8 per cent — the worst in eight years, a Reuters report said recently, quoting unnamed Met officials. Rajeevan, however, said a clearer picture of the actual seasonal deficit would emerge after the first week of September. The prolonged dry period has started impacting the standing kharif crops in several states.
Crop yield could go down
And if it does not rain properly over the next 10-15 days, yields could go down in areas where irrigation facilities aren’t well developed. In areas where irrigation is available, the growers’ costs will increase, according to experts.
A crop health survey done by the Indore-based Soybean Processors Association of India noted that there had been an unprecedented shortfall in rainfall in August. It said that while the soy crop had held on to its own so far, rains were required immediately.
“Any delay in rains will be detrimental to the soybean crop in the entire country. The extent of yield loss will depend on the revival of rains, and it is premature to predict the overall crop today. All will depend on how the monsoon behaves in the next 45 days,” the association said in a statement.
The problem with Indian agriculture is that thought the overall rainfall is normal or just above normal, crop yields are decided by the timely rains and their proper distribution. That means, showers should come on given time, in given doses of quantity. Any disturbance in them could impair our food grain production.
