Rama Krishna Sangem
Now that Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla on July 26, Wednesday accepted a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Narendra Modi led BJP government, all eyes are on the six big opposition parties. These six are not part of either ruling NDA led by BJP or opposition Congress backed INDIA – Indian National Developmental and Inclusive Alliance.
These parties are: YSR Congress with 22 MPs, , BJD, 12, BSP 10, BRS 9 and TDP 3 and JD(S) 1 MPs. As ruling BJP commands 303 MPs on its own in a House of 545 MPs, absolutely there is no threat to the survival of the Modi government. The opposition INDIA camp too knows this arithmetic. Congress with 52 MPs, DMK 24, TMC 22, JD(U)16, NCP 5, SP 5, AAP 1 and some other minor parties are distant behind of NDA.
BRS gives a separate notice for no-confidence motion on Wednesday, minutes after INDIA’s move, and got the support of 2 MPs AIMIM. So, BRS notice has the backing of 11 MPs in Lok Sabha. BRS leaders in LS Nama Nageswara Rao gave this notice under Rule 198 of Chapter XVII of Rules of Procedure and Condcut of Business in Lok Sabha. Nama’s notice is one liner – “this House has no confidence in the council of ministers”.
Result is expected: There may not be voting
Result of these bunch of notices of no trust motions is expected. The government will survive. The Speaker may club all the notices of no trust or simply reject those which are not backed by enough numbers – One 10th of the House – that 55 MPs. Either way, all the parties can take part in the discussion on the no trust motion. The Speaker may allow this motion either from this weekend or from July 31, Monday.
‘As the outcome is expected, there may not be voting on the no trust motion. After PM Modi replies to the debate at the end of it, the opposition parties may stage walk outs – separately, INDIA and others. The debate will mostly on Manipur issue, though other things too will figure in. The Opposition INDIA has been asking for the PM’s statement on Manipur violence for the few days, but it hasn’t come.
So, they forced this no trust motion. Now the interesting part will be who will side with whom and who will walk out with whom? All the 26 parties of INDIA will walk out together, a the end of the debate. Even iff the Speaker calls for a vote, they may not vote, as they have no numbers. Or for instance, if INDIA accepts to join a voting, how will these 6 parties vote?
As of now, BRS and AIMIM will talk tough against the BJP and walk out at the end. It is to be seen what stand YCP and TDP will take on the no trust move? These two parties, along with BJD may simply express concern over Manipur situation and either sit in the House or abstain from voting, if happens. JD(S) is likely to follow this pattern. BSP too will attack the PM on Manipur issue, but may not join INDIA.
PM Modi on his part will use this motion to attack Congress and INDIA parties to hard- sell his achievements in the last four years. As he already indicated to his NDA partners, this no trust motion is not a worry for his survival. “Let them bring the motion,” he told his MPs. He is expected to use this motion to tell people that the opposition has ganged up to derail all the good work done by him in his second term as PM.
