Rama Krishna Sangem
Donald Trump who will take over as President of America on January 20, 2025, will be more powerful than what he was in his first term – between 2016-20. Not only that, he will tighten control of his Republican Party on all key institutions including the US Supreme Court for next 20 years, analysts feel. His transition team is preparing plans to perpetuate Trump legacy on the US, beyond his second term, 2029.
Donald Trump’s recent election victory marks a historic moment for the Republican Party, as he has not only won the Electoral College but also claimed the popular vote, defeating Kamala Harris by a 6 per cent margin. This is the first time since George W Bush’s 2004 win that a Republican has secured the popular vote, which gives Trump a significant mandate. In his 2016 victory, Trump had lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
Despite numerous legal cases against him, his involvement in the 2020 Capitol attack, and his controversial remarks against minorities, Trump managed to win the trust of millions of Americans, setting himself up as one of the most powerful leaders globally.
Trump win suggests new politics
Trump’s victory was bolstered by increased support from Black and Latino voters, even as the Democratic Party gained ground among white voters, particularly older women. His strategy involved expanding his appeal in ethnically diverse regions, increasing his vote share by an average of seven points in counties with high non-white populations, compared to a two-point rise in predominantly white counties.
A significant shift was observed in Miami-Dade County, Florida. With a two-thirds Latino population, it had consistently leaned Democratic, with no Republican win since George H W Bush’s in 1988. Trump, who had lost the county by 30 points in 2016, achieved a dramatic turnaround, mirroring a broader trend among Latino voters.
In North Carolina, Trump gained traction in areas with substantial Black populations, such as Nash County, where 41 per cent of residents are Black. Previously a contested county, it was secured by Trump this time, indicating his growing appeal in diverse communities. Pennsylvania also showed shifts, with Trump making gains in areas with fewer white, non-college-educated voters—a demographic that had previously been a Democratic stronghold.
Of the 47 counties that have flipped since 2020, 44 favoured Trump, including 17 that had consistently voted Democratic since 2000. His success in traditionally Democratic areas highlights shifting political dynamics in the US.
Republican control over Supreme Court for 20 years
With a 6-3 conservative majority, the Supreme Court remains firmly in Republican hands. This conservative tilt was solidified during Trump’s first term with the appointments of Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. The court’s rulings on issues like abortion and gun rights have reflected this shift and will likely cement conservative dominance for decades.
Trump’s judicial appointments, made with the help of then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, reshaped the court. His appointments included Gorsuch in 2017, Kavanaugh in 2018, and Barrett in 2020, replacing Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg shortly before the presidential election. These justices, in their 50s, could influence the court for the next two decades.
