Rama Krishna Sangem
Iran’s drone missile attack on Israel on April 14 has shocked the entire world. Just after that, global community and geopolitical experts have begun speculating on a possible escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East – between Israel and Hamas in Gaza strip of Palestine. Some even went to the extent of guessing a full fledged war between Israel and Iran.
But, these speculations might not happen. Yes, of course, there is pressure on both Israel and Iran to retaliate any attacks on them by the other side. First, it is Israel which attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1. That attack killed close to a dozen of Iranian army officers – called Islamic Revolutionary Guards commanders. Israel attacked them because of its suspicion that Iran is helping Hamas, a designated terror outfit.
Israel is at war with Hamas because the latter attacked it on October 7, killing close to 1,200 Israelis and holding hostage of another 370 civilians. Since then, Israel has been attacking Hamas along the Gaza stripe and other adjoining areas, basically to teach a lesson or destroy Hamas networks. So far, the Israeli army, called IDF (Israel Defence Forces) are estimated to have killed not less than 20,000 people in Palestine, including Gaza. Israeli attacks now reached the level of genocide.
Why is the ceasefire elusive?
We all know, the US has been the biggest supporter of Israel for the last 70 years. Of course, there are other western countries like the UK, France. All these countries are shocked at the level of death and destruction happening in Gaza and other areas of Palestine. The United Nations passed a resolution appealing for a ceasefire in Gaza. Even the US and the UK too called for immediate ceasefire – for a long term.
But, Israel is not ready to oblige. The main reason for this is Hamas’ unwillingness for a long term ceasefire. For a long term ceasefire, Hamas will have to vacate Gaza, its stronghold in Palestine. Israel has put a condition that for any long lasting ceasefire, Gaza will have to be demilitarized. It should become a buffer zone of peace between Israel and Palestine. But, this is not acceptable to Hamas.
If we go deeper into the cause of conflict, Hamas is not ready for any form of existence in Israel. Formation and presence of Israel on an Arab land is totally unacceptable to Hamas. Many of Israel’s supporters are proposing a two nation theory – that there shall be two countries – Israel and Palestine. Some sections of Palestine are willing to buy this theory. But, Hamas is not ready for it.
Role of Iran is secondary
If this is the stand off between Hamas and Israel, the role of Iran is secondary. The Islamic regime of Iran will not let down Hams at this stage. More so, the US backing of Israel is again unacceptable to Iran. Gaza is an excuse to Iran. If the US is behind Israel, Iran wants to be with Hamas. That’s a reason why Iran based Islamic militant outfits openly aid and work with Hamas linked outfits like Hezebollah.
Now the situation is like this. Israel attacked the Syrian embassy of Iran – to express its anger over Islamic revolutionary guards’ support to Hamas – on April 1 . Iran retaliated that attack by drones and UAV missiles on April 14. The episode is over. Of course, the US, the UK and Jordan have stopped Iranian drone missiles mid-way in the air. Now Iran wants Israel not to attack it again.
Even the US too wants Israel to refrain from further retaliation. Israel too is not keen on escalating the present conflict by launching further air raids on Iran. We must remember that there is a distance of 2,000 km between Israel and Iran and it is difficult for them to clash aerially. Even the border to border distance between them is a minimum 1,000 km. In between are Iraq and Jordan.
Like Russia, Iran too depends on selling oil to the world. Any further escalation of armed conflict with Israel will make it difficult for Iran to sell its oil. Already reeling under the US economic sanctions, Iran can ill -afford to forego oil revenues at this stage. Moreover, Israel too wants to end its present armed conflict with Hamas. So, in spite of predictions of a bigger and direct war between Israel and Iran, it is unlikely to happen in the near future.
